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Unpacking the OBBBA: Why 2026 Tax Refunds Are Trending Higher

We are still in the opening weeks of the 2026 tax filing season, but the preliminary numbers from the IRS have already sparked conversations here in Fort Lauderdale. The data points to a distinct upward trend in refund amounts. So far, the average refund has climbed to $2,476—a 14.2% jump compared to $2,169 at this time in 2025.

While an extra $300 in your pocket is certainly welcome, it is worth noting that this figure hasn't quite hit the $1,000 increase that some policymakers originally forecasted. However, because we are still early in the processing phase, these averages often fluctuate as more complex returns are filed. The current trajectory suggests that the new provisions within the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) are beginning to make their mark on taxpayer outcomes.

Key OBBBA Provisions Impacting Your Return

The OBBBA introduced a suite of specific deductions and credits designed to lower taxable income for working families and individuals. Understanding these changes is critical to ensuring you don't leave money on the table this year.

Construction workers discussing plans on site

Here are the primary drivers behind the refund boost:

  • The Overtime Premium Pay Deduction: This is a significant shift for hourly workers. The "half" of your "time-and-a-half" pay mandated by the federal Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA) is now deductible. This deduction is capped at $12,500 for single filers and $25,000 for married couples filing jointly.
  • The Tips Tax Deduction: For our clients in the hospitality and service industries, this is vital. Workers in designated occupations can now deduct up to $25,000 of "qualified tips" annually. Married taxpayers must file jointly to claim this.
    • Phase-out Warning: Both the overtime and tips deductions begin to phase out at a Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) of $150,000 ($300,000 for joint filers) and are fully eliminated at $275,000 and $550,000, respectively.
  • Auto Loan Interest Deduction: If you purchased a new, U.S.-assembled vehicle for personal use after 2024, you may deduct up to $10,000 of the loan interest. The loan must be secured by the vehicle and cannot be from a friend or relative. This benefit phases out starting at a MAGI of $100,000 ($200,000 for joint filers).
  • Enhanced Standard Deductions & Senior Bonus: The standard deduction has been raised to $15,750 for singles and $31,500 for married couples. Additionally, there is a $6,000 "Senior Bonus" for taxpayers aged 65 and older. Given our demographics here in Florida, this is a crucial update for retirees.
  • Expanded Child Tax Credit: The credit has increased to $2,200 per child. This benefit is available in full for joint filers with income up to $400,000 ($200,000 for single/head of household).
  • Increased SALT Limit: The State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction cap has been raised significantly from $10,000 to $40,000 (phasing down for those with MAGI over $500,000).

Father and child fishing together by the water

Why Else Are Refunds Up?

Beyond new deductions, technical factors are inflating refund checks. Many of these tax cuts were enacted mid-year, and the IRS withholding tables were not updated in real-time to reflect them. Consequently, many employees had more tax withheld from their paychecks than necessary, resulting in larger refunds now.

Furthermore, inflation adjustments to tax brackets are helping to reduce overall liability by preventing "bracket creep," and the Adoption Tax Credit (up to $5,000) is now partially refundable.

Navigating IRS Challenges

While the refund news is positive, the administrative side presents challenges. The IRS is currently operating with a reduced workforce—down 25% since January 2025—and is battling a backlog of returns. We have already observed a slight decrease in processing speed (down 3.1%).

If you are hesitant to file because of the complexity of the OBBBA or fear of IRS delays, do not worry. At Thompson-Smith CPA, LLC, we combine deep corporate finance experience with a personal approach. We are fully up-to-speed on every phase-out threshold and new credit introduced by this legislation.

Contact us today to ensure your return is accurate, compliant, and optimized for the highest possible refund.

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